Yesterday was George Soros’s 90th birthday. An interview was posted on his website. There is one exchange I find very interesting and answered my long-time question about Mr.Soros.
Q) What made you so successful in the financial markets?
A) As I mentioned before, I have developed a conceptual framework that gave me an advantage. It is about the complex relationship between thinking and reality, but I have used the market as a testing ground for the validity of my theory. I can sum it up in two simple propositions. One is that in situations that have thinking participants the participants’ view of the world is always incomplete and distorted. That is fallibility. The other is that these distorted views can influence the situation to which they relate and distorted views lead to inappropriate actions. That is reflexivity. This theory gave me a leg up, but now that my “Alchemy of Finance” is practically compulsory reading for professional market participants I have lost my advantage. Recognizing this, I am now no longer a market participant.
So George Soros is now not a market participant because he realized that he does not have the advantage over
other participants. And that is why he is only so enthusiastic about his open society design
which is a more philosophical dream that he wants to realize since he has accomplished his financial dream.
The idea that he thinks he does not have advantages over other professional investors and quits the market makes me as a
young market participant look naive and gives me a warning of being careful.
As far as I know, Soros family fund is still actively trading in the market and I guess they must consult Mr. Soros for his
opinion about the market. So I would regard his words as an expression of stepping down or pivoting his focus from financial
market to political initiatives. But is it true that people would only listen to him of his remarks on financial market yet not
political position. Unlike Warren Buffett who does not like to talk about politics, Mr. Soros’s soul is in philosophy from the
beginning of his career and as he has said in the interview he only used financial market as a test
ground of the two pillars of his theory. So that makes Warren Buffett and George Soros two totally different market participants.
If we would say Warren Buffett is a true investor, I would regard George Soros as a true speculator. The ultimate goal of Buffett may
just be making as much as possible money so he figured it out that the best way is to make the most of the tailwind of the U.S.
economy to practice his value investment. However, George Soros’s goal is to validate his philosophical theory of fallibily and
reflexivity such that his style of investment is distinguished from others. And that is why the classic victory against Bank of
England would never happen in Buffett’s career.
I am just crossing the line to talk about these two great figures of our century. All I am saying here is from my
deepest respect for their intelligence, their ambition and concrete practices to realize their dreams.
So my next question is, as a young market participant aware of that even the knowledgeable financial master
George Soros has quit, what should I do?
The answer for now is I can try to be Buffett+Taleb+Soros. lol.